Bayern: No Expectations

You could scour London looking for a sane man to support the notion that Arsenal will progress beyond the second round of the Champions League; it would be a forlorn search.

There is no reason to expect anything other than a clear defeat over two legs.

This is Wenger's worst Arsenal team by a distance.

The Blackburn defeat may well have been the result of complacency, and the Gunners may well raise their game for Bayern.

But after years of steady decline, the line between success and failure is no longer defined only by mentality and motivation, it is now a question too of quality.

Arsenal, though far from completely lacking in it, have far less than they did in the recent past.

If they weren't good enough then, they certainly aren't now. Because if not superior quality, what else do they have in their favour?

To beat better opposition, you need a plan, and you need a backbone.

But Wenger doesn't do tactics, and Arsenal are so often spineless on the big occasion.

This last point is a particularly painful one, because for so long youth and callowness could be used as a convenient and indeed convincing excuse.

Now, the squad and the first team boasts several experienced heads, but the old problems of complacency (against the poor teams) and a lack of belief (against the good ones) continue to surface.

Bayern are the should-be-holders after Chelsea's flukey win last season, runaway leaders of the Bundesliga and among the favourites to triumph in Europe. For them, the Emirates will hold no fear. They may be vulnerable to wily, resourceful opponents who will sit deep and disciplined and wait for a chance to strike on the break. But for Arsenal, there are no precedents for such a performance. If it comes, it will come from nowhere. They have had it done to them so many times, by the great and the good and even by Championship Blackburn, but they've never done it themselves

If today affords no optimism, we can search for it in memories. In 2006, Arsenal were enduring what was, at the time, a shockingly bad domestic season, struggling to win on the road and struggling to fill the Vieira-shaped void in central midfield. Fourth place would be secured eventually, on the last day, after Spurs had led the way for most of the season. When the Gunners were drawn against Real Madrid in the first knockout round of the Champions League, most expected a drubbing.

Arsenal plundered a memorable win at the Bernebeau, via Henry's classic individual goal, and then progressed after a bonkers, unbelievably goalless slugfest at Highbury.

Unfortunately, it's hard to envisage a similar outcome this time around. That was bloated, late Galactico era Madrid, still boasting legends like Zidane, Raul and an ever-inflating Ronaldo and celebrities like Beckham. They were lacking in hunger, lacking in organisation, and Arsenal took sweet advantage, to kickstart a run that brought them to the very brink of that elusive European success.

And Arsenal themselves, while in something of a transitional phase (one that's arguably continued ever since!)     still boasted their own attacking riches. Henry was enjoying his last season of true greatness. Players like Pires and Ljungberg were now plainly saving their best for Europe. Gilberto Silva was a selfless World Cup winner who shielded the defence and left the fancy stuff to the others. Fabregas alongside him was busy announcing himself as one of Europe's great young talents.

That said, there were reasons to be very surprised by that European run. In league games, Arsenal's defending was often shambolic. Senderos sometimes appeared a liability, embarrassingly vulnerable to fleet footed attackers. Because both Cole and Clichy were injured, Flamini was playing at left back. And with Lauren also struggling for fitness and form, a lunatic called Eboue was marshalling the right side of the defence, in front of the similarly insane but sometimes brilliant Lehmann.

Somehow, this motley crew, along with the then still reliable Kolo Toure, conjured clean sheet after clean sheet. Arsenal, basically, need something that weird to happen again. Starting tomorrow night.

HUUUUUUUGE

Let's be honest, the priority for Arsenal this season is to win a trophy. Any trophy. That means, as sad as it sounds, the Carling Cup semi-final second leg against Ipswich will now be a huuuuuge game.

You can't start a fire without a spark. If and when Arsenal win the Carling Cup, the begrudgers will belittle the achievement. That's understandable, especially considering the best team Arsenal have had to beat so far is Tottenham reserves. Still, Arsene Wenger would rightly see Carling Cup triumph as Michael Collins saw the Treaty: a stepping stone to bigger and better things.

There are not many players in the current Arsenal squad who have tasted sweet success; perhaps a perceived "small" victory could prove the catalyst for bigger ones. As it is, there still seems a disturbing lack of either desire or nerve in the Arsenal ranks. The side that faced Ipswich in the first leg was full of experience, and even had Fabregas at its core. Disappointing, then, that they failed to impose themselves against limited opposition. To say, honestly, that Ipswich are worth their first leg lead speaks of the poverty of Arsenal's performance.

Still, if they bring their A game to to the home leg, all this should be rendered irrelevant.

Paul Jewell will be in charge of the Tractor Boys at the Emirates, which rekindles horrible memories of a recent Carling Cup semi-final second leg. Robin Van Persie's extra-time whopper of a free kick had Arsenal leading Wigan 2-1, before two lumbering tanks allowed Jason Roberts to score a late, late, away goals winner.

Let's hope Djourou's fitness holds up, because Koscielny and Squillaci have together shown an ineptitude worthy of Senderos and Campbell that night in 2006.

How Do You Console A Man Who's Just Injured Himself By Tackling His Own Team Mate?

It's one of the great philosophical questions.

I don't mean to stick the knife in, but I'm glad Big Philly is gone. Sometimes, watching him, I felt I was witnessing the sporting equivalent of all the embarrassing and awkward moments of my own life. Perhaps I should feel an affinity with the guy.

But I can't. It's hard enough to watch Arsenal these days without being reminded of my status as a social retard by their lumbering, error-prone centre backs.

Some more pointless shite talk

Just how little did Wenger rate Big Philly Senderos?

It just hit me there now: I totally forgot about his existence when writing that last post. Started the season at Arsenal as back-up, only played in the carling cup, and was ALLOWED LEAVE (on loan?) in January, so that Campbell and Silvestre comprised our centre-back reserves.

Anyway, things could really get ugly tomorrow night. I think I'll take a perverse enjoyment out of it.

If Arsenal even keep it close, it will all look hugely noble.

But maybe Campbell, despite everyone including Wenger's worries about his lack of pace, will help with his organisational abilities. We've let in less soft goals with him in the team.

If you've forgotten why it's a good thing Philly is gone, just look at the picture above.