Bayern: No Expectations

You could scour London looking for a sane man to support the notion that Arsenal will progress beyond the second round of the Champions League; it would be a forlorn search.

There is no reason to expect anything other than a clear defeat over two legs.

This is Wenger's worst Arsenal team by a distance.

The Blackburn defeat may well have been the result of complacency, and the Gunners may well raise their game for Bayern.

But after years of steady decline, the line between success and failure is no longer defined only by mentality and motivation, it is now a question too of quality.

Arsenal, though far from completely lacking in it, have far less than they did in the recent past.

If they weren't good enough then, they certainly aren't now. Because if not superior quality, what else do they have in their favour?

To beat better opposition, you need a plan, and you need a backbone.

But Wenger doesn't do tactics, and Arsenal are so often spineless on the big occasion.

This last point is a particularly painful one, because for so long youth and callowness could be used as a convenient and indeed convincing excuse.

Now, the squad and the first team boasts several experienced heads, but the old problems of complacency (against the poor teams) and a lack of belief (against the good ones) continue to surface.

Bayern are the should-be-holders after Chelsea's flukey win last season, runaway leaders of the Bundesliga and among the favourites to triumph in Europe. For them, the Emirates will hold no fear. They may be vulnerable to wily, resourceful opponents who will sit deep and disciplined and wait for a chance to strike on the break. But for Arsenal, there are no precedents for such a performance. If it comes, it will come from nowhere. They have had it done to them so many times, by the great and the good and even by Championship Blackburn, but they've never done it themselves

If today affords no optimism, we can search for it in memories. In 2006, Arsenal were enduring what was, at the time, a shockingly bad domestic season, struggling to win on the road and struggling to fill the Vieira-shaped void in central midfield. Fourth place would be secured eventually, on the last day, after Spurs had led the way for most of the season. When the Gunners were drawn against Real Madrid in the first knockout round of the Champions League, most expected a drubbing.

Arsenal plundered a memorable win at the Bernebeau, via Henry's classic individual goal, and then progressed after a bonkers, unbelievably goalless slugfest at Highbury.

Unfortunately, it's hard to envisage a similar outcome this time around. That was bloated, late Galactico era Madrid, still boasting legends like Zidane, Raul and an ever-inflating Ronaldo and celebrities like Beckham. They were lacking in hunger, lacking in organisation, and Arsenal took sweet advantage, to kickstart a run that brought them to the very brink of that elusive European success.

And Arsenal themselves, while in something of a transitional phase (one that's arguably continued ever since!)     still boasted their own attacking riches. Henry was enjoying his last season of true greatness. Players like Pires and Ljungberg were now plainly saving their best for Europe. Gilberto Silva was a selfless World Cup winner who shielded the defence and left the fancy stuff to the others. Fabregas alongside him was busy announcing himself as one of Europe's great young talents.

That said, there were reasons to be very surprised by that European run. In league games, Arsenal's defending was often shambolic. Senderos sometimes appeared a liability, embarrassingly vulnerable to fleet footed attackers. Because both Cole and Clichy were injured, Flamini was playing at left back. And with Lauren also struggling for fitness and form, a lunatic called Eboue was marshalling the right side of the defence, in front of the similarly insane but sometimes brilliant Lehmann.

Somehow, this motley crew, along with the then still reliable Kolo Toure, conjured clean sheet after clean sheet. Arsenal, basically, need something that weird to happen again. Starting tomorrow night.

Clichy: Don't Let The Door Hit You On The Way Out

When Ashley Cole left Arsenal in such acrimonious circumstances in 2006, there was widespread belief amongst Arsenal fans that it wasn't that bad a deal. Arsenal had received money, and William Gallas. And Gael Clichy had always looked too good to just play understudy all his career. People thought he was ready to step up.

So how did that work out?

Well, Gallas was a fine defender. But he and Kolo Toure did not form a complimentary partnership. They were probably too similar- quick and hard to beat along the ground, relatively weak in the air.

Then there was the legacy of his season as captain. In 07/08, he started in inspirational mood, scoring some important goals. But as Arsenal suffered the first of many title race implosions in recent years, Gallas buckled under the pressure. He exploded at Birmingham after a certain Mr. Clichy gave away a penalty with a mistake of awe-inspiring stupidity.

He was eventually stripped of the captaincy but fans never really forgave Gallas for his tantrum at the end of the Birmingham game. It was pretty embarrassing stuff, but I always felt for Gallas a bit. He had come from Chelsea, where he was surrounded by big characters, to Arsenal, where he was asked to be the big character. He was never really captain material.

His poor relationship with Toure meant that Kolo left in 2009, and his poor relationship with Nasri probably contributed to Gallas's own departure in 2010. In other words, while it was not all Gallas's fault, he ended up causing more problems than he solved in his time at Arsenal.

But what about Clichy- how did he fare in trying to replace Ashley Cole?

Being lenient, you would say he has been an adequate left back, but certainly not as good as his predecessor. Being a little more harsh, but honest, you would say that he has often been a downright liability. 07/08 may well have been his best season- he even produced a few decent crosses for once- but it was tarnished in a big way by the aforementioned mistake against Birmingham. And it's not as if we hadn't been warned- he made a very similar error, one that also cost Arsenal a goal but not the game, against Manchester City a few weeks earlier. His game has been sprinkled with errors ever since that season. His concentration and consistency are just not up to scratch. You won't win titles with a left back like that.

Clichy's problems are made more clear by Sagna on the other side, who is a real seven out of ten every week full back- solid and reliable. He is better in defence and, although not a frightening player going forward, he is certainly more productive than Clichy- although he could also do with improving his crossing.

The sad fact is, as much as Arsenal fans would hate to admit it, they have missed Ashley Cole hugely. He has almost always, since his departure, been one of the two or three best left backs in the world. When Clichy first came to Arsenal and broke into the team while Cole was injured, there was genuine hope that Wenger had unearthed a Cole Clone. The truth has been rather different. In fact, Mathieu Flamini was a more reliable defender at left back in the run to the Champions League final of 2006 than Clichy has ever been.

Now, with a year to run on his contract, Clichy has refused a new deal and seems certain to leave this summer. Because of his contract situation, it will be a cut-price deal, and Liverpool have apparently just offered 5 million pounds for his services.

Wenger may be loathe to sell to a fellow Premiership club, but while Clichy has been a decent servant to the club, and was no doubt a popular figure in the largely French dressing room, he should not be sorely missed.

Some will now suggest the promotion of Kieran Gibbs but that would be a little rash. His impact in the games he has played has often been overstated- as these things often are where young English players are concerned. More importantly, he spends far too much time out injured to be trusted with the role. In other words, it looks like Arsene Wenger has yet another pressing transfer priority for this summer- a reliable left back.

A Question for the Ages

WHAT is the point of Denilson???










Today, he looked even more pointless than Jermaine Jenas. Watch with horror as he repeats his patented party trick, watching attackers overtake him while he jogs towards his own goal.

Cesc Fabregas is one of the best midfield players in the world; I've said it a hundred times before, he shouldn't have to share a midfield with the likes of Denilson. When I first saw the Brazilian play, I actually thought he was a similar player to Fabregas. Either he's regressed, or I was hallucinating: the only thing they share is a lack of pace. Which points to a general problem with the Arsenal midfield that has persisted since the departure of Flamini.


TOO PEDESTRIAN.
When on top form, as he was at times today, Fabregas controls the tempo brilliantly. He can slow it down, speed it up, his passing is exemplary. But without the ball, he can seem a slight presence. He needs a minder. Instead, we have Song and Denilson. Song engages in a bit of midfield scuffling, which is necessary, but he is no flyer himself, he seems to shuffle around the pitch. And Denilson is either ridiculously one-paced or just can't be arsed.

It's no wonder Arsenal concede a lot of goals on the break, with Bale's today indicative of just one of this team's catalogue of flaws.

We Gotta Stay Positive...

SO... is the presence of Nasri, Arshavin, Rosicky, Wilshere, and Ramsey reassuring, in the inevitably impending event of the captain's departure?

Now, it is true that Fabregas is Arsenal's best player by a country mile, their only GREAT player. But he is most impressive in the creative sense and Arsenal do, at the moment, have a surfeit of creative players. Perhaps, when he leaves, this relieves Wenger of the nightmare of having to find a direct replacement.

In fact, I think that one of the foremost priorities when Fabregas leaves should be a free-scoring striker, because last season Arsenal started to rely on the skipper for goals as well as passes. Chamakh, Bendtner, and, because of his frequent injuries, Van Persie are unlikely to hit 20 goals a season; with th loss of Fabregas's goals from midfield, that could become a problem.

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MORE CESC-CENTRED RAMBLINGS
A fascinating question that I think last season posed was whether Fabregas, and by extension Arsenal, lost something for the deploymentof the captain further up the pitch. Obviously, it freed him up to do some serious damage in the final third and unleash his latent goalscoring prowess, but in the bigger games, Arsenal's central midfield looked rudderless without his metronomic passing, and control of the game was often ceded as a result.

I frequently look back on 07/08 as Fabregas's real golden period, as he formed a formidable partnership with the dynamic Flamini. The Frenchman covered enough ground to allow Fabregas to indulge every facet of his game. Unfortunately, Arsenal do not have a Flamini now, and Wenger has had to adapt accordingly.

Interestingly, in the wake of the Blackpool game, the boss did mention the prospect of Chamakh and RVP linking up in a 4-4-2, which might suggest a return to Fabregas's previous 'midfield general' role. I think what could be more likely, and more effective, is a 4-2-3-1, with Cesc and Song as the '2', and Rosicky or Nasri in the middle of the '3'. The million dollar question is whether Wenger feels that this could offer the defence the protection it needs. I think it could, if Fabregas can indeed return to his role as a classic midfield playmaker, while not curtailing his instinct to get forward at the right times.

It's just a pity Arsenal don't have a more mobile midfielder than Song to partner Fabregas- for all his talent, the Cameroonian does not cover the ground as quickly as Flamini did. And as for Denilson and Diaby....